Adherence of brazilian states' budgets in the light of the punctuated equilibrium theory

Abstract

This article aims to analyze the behavior of the budget of the Brazilian states. The purpose of the
analysis was to verify the adherence of the budgets of the state governments in the light of the
Theory of Punctuated Equilibrium. The analysis was based on the budgets data of the states and
Distrito Federal covering the years 2002 to 2018. Four expenditure functions were also selected
for analysis, in addition to the general budget. Normality of the data was tested to demonstrate
incrementalism and kurtosis to verify budget punctuations. It was observed that in the case of the
General Budget, twenty-five states presented themselves with an incremental model. Regarding
expenses by function, it was found that only the states of Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro
showed evidence of the presence of the Punctuated Equilibrium for the Health and Public Safety
functions, respectively. Finally, it was concluded that the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory does
not apply, in general, to the budgets of the states of Brazil, with some exceptions. Therefore, the
research hypothesis has not been confirmed. the research that the budget follows a regular trend,
occasionally altered by large variations, has not been confirmed.