Brief note ont the number of RSP users according to Google Analytics

Authors

Keywords:

time series, change-points, Product Partition Models, Dynamic Generalized Linear Models, editorial milestones

Abstract

The number of visitors to a journal’s website can be used as a proxy for its impact. In this note we
use the Product Partition Dynamic Generalized Linear Model to find possible change-points in
the time series of visitors to the Revista do Serviço Público (RSP) website over the period from
January 2017 to April 2022. Our results point to the existence of twelve structural breaks in the
series: six positives and six negatives. The positive breaks, that is, associated with an increase
in the flow of visitors, can be attributed to the release of new editions. We also verified that two
of these breaks generated a permanent change in the number of visitors to the RSP’s page. On
the other hand, the negative change points, in general, represent a mean reversion after an
unexpected increase in hits on the magazine's website. We hope that the determination of RSP's
editorial milestones can help the journal's editorial board to identify themes and authors of
greatest interest to readers.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Barry, D., & Hartigan, J. A. (1992). Product Partition Models for Change Point Problems. The Annals of Statistics, 20(1), 260–279.

Comitti, V. S.; Demarqui, F. N.; dos Santos, T. R.; Almeida, J. da A. (2021) Product Partition Dynamic Generalized Linear Models. Disponível em: <http://arxiv.org/abs/2103.02470>. Acesso em: 11/3/2021.

Kendall, M. and Stuart, A. (1983) The Advanced Theory of Statistics. Vol. 3: Distribution Theory. Griffin, London, 410-414.

Loschi, R. and Cruz, F. (2002). Applying the Product Partition Model to the Identification of Multiple Change Points. Advances in Complex Systems (ACS). 05. 371-387.

West, M., Harrison, P. J., & Migon, H. S. (1985). Dynamic Generalized Linear Models and Bayesian Forecasting. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 80(389), 73–83.

Yao, Y. (1984). Estimation of a noisy discrete-time step function: Bayes and empirical Bayes approaches. The Annals of Statistics 12, 1434-1447.

Downloads

Published

2022-12-27

How to Cite

Comitti, V. S. (2022). Brief note ont the number of RSP users according to Google Analytics. Revista Do Serviço Público, 73(4), 561-568. Retrieved from https://revista.enap.gov.br/index.php/RSP/article/view/7826

Issue

Vol. 73 No. 4 (2022)

Section

Artigos

License

Copyright (c) 2022 Revista do Serviço Público

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

- A RSP adota a licença Creative Commons (CC) do tipo Atribuição – Uso Não-Comercial (BY-NC).

- A licença permite que outros remixem, adaptem e criem obra licenciada, sendo proibido o uso com fins comerciais.

- As novas obras devem fazer referência ao autor nos créditos e não podem ser usadas com fins comerciais, porém não precisam ser licenciadas sob os mesmos termos dessa licença.

- Ao publicar o artigo na RSP, o autor cede e transfere para a ENAP os direitos autorais patrimoniais referentes ao artigo.

- O artigo publicado na RSP não poderá ser divulgado em outro meio sem a devida referência à publicação de origem.

- O autor que tiver o artigo publicado na RSP deverá assinar o Termo de Concessão de Direitos Autorais (em momento oportuno a editoria da Revista entrará em contato com o autor para assinatura do Termo).